2023″数维杯”国际大学生数学建模挑战赛（附2019年优秀论文）

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（2019年论文展示）

（2019年C篇论文展示）

1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Pork farming is a fundamental industry in China, whose stability affects the interests of all participants in the industrial chain such as fodder producers, farmers, operators and consumers. As the demand for pork increases, pork farming, which is related to China’s
political stability, economic development and the welfare of resident, has become the core industrial of China’s meat production and consumption [1].
As the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, China’s pig farming industry has its own characteristics. Its production and price variation are more volatile, because of its
dependence on policies and it is easily influenced by external factors. Especially in the past six months, the price of pork in China has shown a three–fold growth trend. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of pork prices, explore the strategy to deal with the price fluctuations, and find out the optimal supply and storage strategy.
1.2 Work
Based on the above background, this article will address the following issues:
(1) Identify the main influencing factors of pork price fluctuation. On the one hand, we use the data from the past few years to analyze the common influencing factors of pork price fluctuations in the long run. On the other hand, in order to figure out whether the recent fluctuations in pork prices are highly correlated with the common fluctuations in pork prices, we use the data from the most recent year to analyze it. If not, we will find out the main factors influencing the recent pork price.
(2) Research on the fallback of pork prices. Considering that pork farming usually has a certain periodicity and some regions are impossible for pig farming, we need to propose a reasonable farming plan to achieve a fallback of pork price in the short term when the price of pork is high. Under the premise that pork farming cannot be completed in a short time, we should develop a reasonable procurement plan for other countries and ensure that domestic pork prices are relatively stable.
(3) The optimal supply and storage strategy of pork. When pork demand is relatively stable, propose the optimal farming plan for different time zones in different regions. Otherwise, when there is a peak demand for pork in a certain area, an effective pork storage strategy is proposed to ensure the stability of pork prices.

2023″数维杯”国际大学生数学建模挑战赛