2023″数维杯”国际大学生数学建模挑战赛（附2022年优秀论文）

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（22年论文展示）

（2022年D篇论文展示）

1. Introduction
La Nina event refers to the phenomenon of continuous abnormal cold on the surface of the central tropical and eastern Pacific seas. La Nina events can affect most
parts of the world to varying degrees. Continuous high temperatures and dry weather can occur in some places, rare floods in some places, and unusual typhoons /
hurricanes in others.
La Nina, which has been running for two years, will continue to extend until theend of the year or tomorrow. That means that we are going through the first triple La Nina event of this century. This is full of uncertainty for the world. Therefore, we need to dig deeper into the different effects of the triple La Nina event around the world. This will be very meaningful and important. Next, this paper will analyze the
impact of triple La Nina events from different perspectives, including statistical analysis, prediction and assessment. Finally, we will develop effective coping strategies and make policy suggestions to relevant parts.
2. Problem analysis
2.1 Analysis of question one
The title asked us to perform a statistical analysis of the major countries and regions affected by the Triple La Nina event. In this step, we first need to consult
relevant materials and read relevant literature, determine which countries are mainly affected by the triple La Nina event, and select representative countries for analysis.
Then, according to the different impact of La Nina event on the climate, the analysis indicators were determined and the relevant data of the indicators was collected.
Finally, statistical methods were used to make statistical analysis and compare the climate changes of different countries under the influence of La Nina.
This question also requires predicting the possibility of triple La Nina events in the future, so we need to make a reasonable prediction of the possible future La Nina
events according to the causes and rules of La Nina formation.
2.2 Analysis of question two Question 2 requires us to take a country more seriously affected by the triple La Nina event as an example, evaluate and analyze the various disaster losses caused by the high temperature and drought under the triple La Nina event, and propose targeted response strategies. First of all, we need to select countries, considering the availability of data and the impact caused by triple Lanina. After that, it is necessary to analyze which meteorological, agricultural, and economic and social indicators high temperature and drought will affect, and build a disaster loss evaluation index system. Then the evaluation method is selected to construct the disaster loss evaluation model and solve the model. Finally, we need to combine themodel–seeking results to give targeted coping strategies to help the country cope with
the triple La Nina event.

2023″数维杯”国际大学生数学建模挑战赛